IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Southland
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.9	#303
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.5	#15
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.7	#275

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.2	#307

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.2%	18.0%	5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	15.2%	47.5%	14.3%
.500 or above in Conference	39.9%	67.3%	39.2%
Conference Champion	2.6%	9.3%	2.4%
Last Place in Conference	12.4%	5.5%	12.6%

First Four	3.7%	6.3%	3.6%
First Round	4.2%	14.7%	4.0%
Second Round	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.5	0.0 - 1.5
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.7	0.1 - 3.2
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.6	0.2 - 5.9
Quad 3	1.1 - 5.0	1.3 - 10.9
Quad 4	7.9 - 7.8	9.3 - 18.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	51	@ Missouri	L	65-82	3%
Nov 15, 2018	167	@ Pittsburgh	L	69-77	16%
Nov 18, 2018	192	@ Troy	L	75-81	21%
Nov 24, 2018	71	@ Saint Louis	L	64-79	5%
Nov 28, 2018	264	Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-72	54%
Dec 05, 2018	54	@ Louisville	L	71-88	4%
Dec 08, 2018	264	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-72	32%
Dec 16, 2018	92	@ New Mexico	L	77-90	8%
Dec 19, 2018	25	@ Indiana	L	67-87	2%
Dec 21, 2018	74	@ Oklahoma St.	L	71-86	7%
Jan 02, 2019	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	75-74	42%
Jan 05, 2019	236	@ SE Louisiana	L	72-76	29%
Jan 09, 2019	258	Sam Houston St.	L	73-75	52%
Jan 12, 2019	227	Lamar	L	74-78	47%
Jan 16, 2019	330	@ Incarnate Word	W	81-77	51%
Jan 19, 2019	263	Nicholls St.	L	81-83	52%
Jan 23, 2019	292	New Orleans	L	73-74	56%
Jan 26, 2019	230	@ Abilene Christian	L	75-79	28%
Jan 30, 2019	105	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	73-85	10%
Feb 02, 2019	328	Northwestern St.	W	77-74	70%
Feb 09, 2019	236	SE Louisiana	L	72-76	47%
Feb 13, 2019	312	Houston Baptist	W	85-84	63%
Feb 20, 2019	304	@ McNeese St.	W	80-79	40%
Feb 23, 2019	263	@ Nicholls St.	L	81-83	33%
Feb 27, 2019	105	Stephen F. Austin	L	73-85	23%
Mar 02, 2019	230	Abilene Christian	L	75-79	48%
Mar 06, 2019	258	@ Sam Houston St.	L	73-75	33%
Mar 09, 2019	328	@ Northwestern St.	W	77-74	50%
Projected Record						9.3 - 18.7	7.7 - 10.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0		2.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	1.3	0.5	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	1.7	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.0					5.9	3rd
4th										0.3	1.7	3.1	1.7	0.2	0.0						6.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.6	3.8	1.9	0.3	0.0							7.9	5th
6th								0.1	1.3	4.0	2.4	0.2	0.0								8.1	6th
7th							0.1	0.8	3.8	3.5	0.5	0.0									8.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.4	4.3	0.9	0.0										9.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.6	3.6	4.7	1.6	0.2											10.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	2.4	4.7	1.9	0.1	0.0											9.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.6	2.4	3.6	2.5	0.3	0.0												9.4	11th
12th		0.0	0.9	2.7	3.2	2.0	0.4	0.0													9.2	12th
13th	0.4	1.1	2.2	2.1	1.2	0.2	0.0														7.1	13th

Total	0.4	1.1	3.0	5.5	7.1	8.7	11.7	11.2	11.3	10.5	8.8	7.3	5.4	3.6	2.3	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	94.2%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
15-3	62.9%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
14-4	26.6%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-5	9.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.6%	2.6		1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		94.8%	94.8%		12.0												0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		62.2%	62.2%		14.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
16-2	0.5%		49.7%	49.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3
15-3	1.4%		38.1%	38.1%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.9
14-4	2.3%		31.9%	31.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	1.6
13-5	3.6%		27.9%	27.9%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	2.6
12-6	5.4%		21.0%	21.0%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.0	4.2
11-7	7.3%		12.4%	12.4%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.8	6.4
10-8	8.8%		6.7%	6.7%		16.0																0.0	0.6	8.2
9-9	10.5%		4.3%	4.3%		16.0																	0.4	10.0
8-10	11.3%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.3	11.1
7-11	11.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
6-12	11.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.6
5-13	8.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
4-14	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-15	5.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
2-16	3.0%																							3.0
1-17	1.1%																							1.1
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		6.2%	6.2%	0.0%	15.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.2	4.7	93.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%